The U.S.-China-Taiwan Triangular Relationship Under Biden
By Philip Yang
United Daily News, November 29, 2020
The first wave of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s cabinet announcement includes Antony Blinken for secretary of state and Jake Sullivan for national security advisor, both being longtime advisors to Biden. Biden stresses that he is going to repair the damage done by the Trump policy to the United States and emphasizes that “America is back” means that the United States will reassert its historic role as a leader across the world.
There were many factors contributing to Donald Trump becoming president of the United States. Events such as the Iraq War and the global financial crisis have turned the American public away from the elites of Washington and Wall Street, giving people without political experience such as Trump a chance to perform a presidential reality show.
Now, President Trump will soon be replaced by Mr. Biden, regarded as a victory for people inside the Beltway and from the professional institutions. It is no surprise that the cabinet picks by Biden reflect the same trait. Biden vows to take action on day one, so many old hands in the Democratic institutions, including the aforementioned Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, are recalled to active duty.
Old hands from the political institutions will normally follow traditional reasons to develop and implement policies in a steady fashion. However, due to the policy turmoil of the Trump Doctrine, the Biden presidency will not be “Obama 3.0” or “Trump Lite” but rather a “Biden mix.”
Mr. Biden’s foreign policy and national security strategy will likely contain two qualities: “tough but rational decision making” and “multilateral realism.” Experienced institutionalists will look at policy from a stable and rational angle but remain determined on issues affecting American interests. Biden’s foreign policy is hence likely to adopt the tough but rational decision-making approach, rendering deep impact on the U.S.-China relations.
Mr. Biden’s pledge to return to multilateralism is evident in his position on the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization. However, multilateralism to the United States simply means sharing the burden. Biden probably will examine from a realist angle whether the American need to return to those international organizations Trump promised to quit.
Under a Biden administration, the U.S.-China relationship will probably be “pragmatic cooperation and confrontation.” Mr. Biden regards China as a strategic rival, not as an enemy. The two countries will probably cooperate on issues of climate change; the trade war between them will probably de-escalate into trade negotiations; the current 20% tariffs will probably be reduced gradually. The bilateral relations will probably return to power competition according to realism theory.
However, there is serious disbelief about China in American and European societies, and the anti-China policy has been pushed to the limits under the Trump administration. The Biden administration will find it hard to reverse the policy within a short period of time. Some of the contentious issues between the U.S. and China will probably be under watch and remain confrontational. For example, Mike Pompeo publicly rejected China’s territorial claims and historic rights in the South China Sea in July this year, reversing the long-held U.S. position not to take sides on the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. As a result, the United States and China confrontation in the South China Sea will likely stay. Moreover, The Trump administration’s tightening of high-tech export control to China involves competition in the science and technology field between the two countries. Mr. Biden is likely to continue some of the control measures.
Under the foreign policy of a Biden administration, there will be no surprises in the cordial U.S.-Taiwan relations. The track record shows that Mr. Biden doesn’t like surprises in the cross-strait relationship. In the past he had opposed the sale of Aegis ships to Taiwan and the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act. He even wrote an article rejecting President George W. Bush’s pledge to defend Taiwan with whatever it takes. It is obvious that Biden doesn’t favor the manipulation of the Taiwan issue because he once said “it could teach China a lesson yet it would not be in the U.S. best interests.”
However, Mr. Biden’s support for Taiwan was firm when was a U.S. senator when he recognized Taiwan’s democratization and supported Taiwan’s participation in international organizations. He also strongly supported the policy of strategic ambiguity under the Taiwan Relations Act. Biden visited Taiwan in 2001 and met with then President Chen Shui-bian. Anthony Blinken also met with then Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen in 2015 in Washington, D.C. and has expressed in the Congress his willingness to work with the first female president of Taiwan.
Under Mr. Biden’s foreign policy, the U.S.-China-Taiwan relations will likely be “firmly controlled triangular relationships.” Biden will probably not let Taiwan become a bargaining chip again and will not be the first to cross the red line, so the triangle relations can remain stable. However, there are an increasing number of factors affecting the triangle relations, factors such as internal politics within Taiwan and military stand-off in the strait will need to be dealt with carefully and flexibly by all concerned.
It is too early to get pessimistic about the prospects of the United States despite its total power is in decline. The serious social and political division within the United States and the Trumpism continue to influence the American politics. There are difficult domestic and foreign challenges for Captain America to regain its leadership role on the world stage. Hence, the future U.S.-China tensions will probably ease but won’t dissolve completely and the future U.S.-Taiwan relations will probably turn low-key but remain supportive. The U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle relations will require constant management to maintain stability but the number of determining factors is likely to increase. In other words, the uncertainty of the triangular relationships and the Cross-Strait relations in the future will become the new normal.
The author formerly served as deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council, Republic of China (Taiwan) from 2012 to 2013.